Baldwin County State Senate District 32:
Sizing up McKinney, Pittman
in Baldwin GOP senate runoff
(2nd of 3)
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Then there were two.
As expected, with five candidates, all of whom possessed varying degrees of political legitimacy, the Republican primary in the special election to fill the Baldwin County state Senate District 32 seat led to a runoff.
That the two left standing are south Baldwin real estate executive Randy McKinney and Eastern Shore businessman Trip Pittman is no surprise, at least not to Mobile Bay Times' readers who had the advantage of the July 11 analysis.
Combining to draw about two-thirds of the vote together -- McKinney with 37 percent and Pittman with almost 30 percent -- the remaining contenders last week eliminated Baldwin County Commissioner David Ed Bishop, former state Sen. Albert Lipscomb and GOP county chairman Don McGriff.
McKinney, a second time aspirant for the office, led the way with 5,562 votes. In his first try for elective office, Pittman got 4,568 votes for the runner-up position and the chance to fight on.
The turnout of 15,431 voters of the district's 87,179 registered voters represented participation of less than 18 percent.
Bishop drew 2,242 votes to finish third, with Lipscomb nipping at his heels in fourth with 2,209 votes. McGriff polled 850 votes.
McKinney and Pittman will face off on Sept. 11 to determine the GOP champion and a slot on the ballot Oct. 16 against unopposed Democratic nominee A.J. Cooper, an experienced politician who was once mayor of Prichard and now has a law practice on the Eastern Shore.
The winner will succeed Bradley Byrne in the state Senate. Byrne stepped down to take over as chancellor of Alabama's two-year college system.
Again, the Mobile Bay Times turns to its cadre of local, area and state political sources for analysis and insight into the campaign's remaining four weeks:
"I think it is possible but unlikely that Pittman beats McKinney. As a quasi-incumbent, McKinney arguably faces a challenge in receiving under 40 percent. Of course, since Lipscomb and Bishop were also quasi-incumbents, I wouldn’t read as much into this as I might otherwise. Still, he (McKinney) had name recognition.
I think McKinney ought to promise to fight Paul Hubbert and the AEA … that would appeal to his base. Say that the AEA doesn’t want to see him in the State Senate where he would fight double-dipping. He should make this the campaign issue … and seize (it) before Pittman can."
-- AHD,
Mobile attorney/lobbyist
"It seems that McKinney must run on his record of casting tough votes to end corruption in the two-year (college) system. Bishop State is not very far from the Eastern Shore and a tremendous number of people work in the downtown area and know the problems very well.
He needs to work the Eastern Shore everyday to maintain the lead and survive 'Ol' Mo.'
Ol' Mo seems to be on Pittman's side. He has worked extremely hard and has a very good grass roots organization. He has to define what it is he can do that McKinney hasn't proven already. I would prefer the underdog role myself. It keeps the troops motivated.
No real (overriding) issue at this point.
It is very difficult to predict the outcome this early. Let's see what political moves take place over the next couple of weeks."
-- NWK,
state legislator
"Trip can overcome McKinney's lead, but it's going to be tough. But how many times do you see the front-runner in the general primary turn around and lose the runoff? Probably more times than not.
Trip needs to get most of David Ed Bishop's and at least half of Lipscomb's voters to vote for him, which is possible -- if they'll turn out for the run-off. Most of McGriff's voters will probably vote for Trip. I think both of them need to campaign in the other one's stronghold area -- Trip in Foley and at the beach, Randy in the Eastern Shore area. At least my opinion.
To me, one of the biggest issues we have in Baldwin County is controlling our growth (i.e., infrastructure, subdivision control, zoning, property taxes, etc.). I would think a sensible and organized plan for our growth would sooth the nerves of the citizens who think we're growing too fast with very little planning.
However, the single biggest issue today is our property value re-appraisals.
As you may know, our annual re-appraisals have really pissed off a lot of property-owners. Some values have increased 300 percent or so. If Trip would campaign on getting that changed (i.e., lowering that tax figure or the frequency of the re-appraisals), that single issue may do it for him. It may take another amendment to the state constitution to do that, so only a local legislator or senator could push that issue -- that is, if I understand that process correctly.
With all that said, I think it's going to be real close. I think those two combined had something like 10,000 votes cast in the first election. So, if you assume those vote, plus a few more, I guess 12,000 votes will be cast.
My gut tells me though McKinney will win something like 52 percent-48 percent, or about 6,200 for Randy and 5,800 for Trip. I wouldn't be surprised though if it's the other way around with the votes being the same 52-48 for Trip. As you well know, it depends who gets their vote out. At this point though, I think McKinney barely wins ..."
-- ITW,
Baldwin County financial advisor
"The two guys I knew in the race drew insignificant campaign contributions and an equal number of votes. I was stunned how much the money list and the vote list seemed almost identical. My advice to Mr. Pittman would be to raise more money.
I don't think I heard much, if any, discussion of any issues. Mr. Bishop had a half-baked plan for tax rebates on insurance premiums, but other than that I don't recall any."
-- PMF,
lawyer, Magnolia Springs
"Since (an organization to which I belong) has endorsed and supported McKinney, I feel uncomfortable dispensing any advice to help Trip (although I know and like him). I have suggested a strategy to Randy that would, hopefully, retain his voters, gain more north of Foley and chip away at Trip's on the Eastern Shore. I'll tell you what I told him after the run-off and we'll see if he followed the advice successfully.
If Randy had been an incumbent and the vote split like it has, I'd say that Trip would be the winner in the runoff. Since the seat is open and there is no residual resentment to an incumbent and, consequently, no ganging up on him, Randy should win this race, 52 percent-48 percent. A thousand votes is a lot to overcome in such a short time, especially when this election may not turn out more than 10-15 percent of the registered Republican voters (8,000-10,000). Remember, three of the candidates are gone, and with them, many of their supporters, who will not return to the polls."
-- PST,
Orange Beach/Gulf Shores executive
"I think if Trip keeps working hard, he can pull it out. I think as it becomes more apparent that McKinney is financed with Montgomery PAC money, he will lose credibility and votes. So I would hammer this every chance I got along with the special title that he voted for for Miss (retired Bishop State Community College president Yvonne) Kennedy, who should be removed. Poor judgment on his part. He will have to have a good explanation on these two issues, as they are very sensitive with Baldwin County voters, and if he hopes to gain any additional votes from the Eastern Shore.
PAC money, I think, in the run-off election will be the single biggest issue. Randy needs it to stay competitive with Trip who has done it without PAC money.
I think Trip wins, especially if he can get the support of either Lipscomb or Bishop. I think the turnout will be comparable to Aug. 7; a close race, 300 votes difference."
-- GDY,
construction interests
