The Political Round-Up
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Who ya' gonna believe?
Bradley Byrne's campaign says:
BYRNE RAPIDLY GAINING MOMENTUM
Overnight tracking poll shows Byrne up by 4;
rolling average suggests dead heat
MONTGOMERY – July 8, 2010 – The most recent polling data released in the GOP gubernatorial run-off shows Bradley Byrne leading his opponent Rep. Robert Bentley by four points. This week's four-day average shows a virtual dead heat between Byrne and Bentley, according to daily tracking data released this morning by D.C.-based Voter/Consumer Research.
Data shows that while, over the last week, Byrne has gained 7 percent of the vote, his opponent, Rep. Bentley, has dropped 7 percent.
Or this from the folks in Bentley's camp:
Robert Bentley in wide lead over Bradley Byrne
MONTGOMERY, Alabama (July 8, 2010) – A poll conducted this week commissioned by a Montgomery political strategy, media and public relations firm shows Robert Bentley in a commanding lead over Bradley Byrne in the Republican run-off for Governor.
Public Strategy Associates, a Montgomery-based company, announced the results of the poll conducted the evening of July 5, 2010 by Baselice and Associates, an Austin, Texas polling firm. Public Strategy Associates is not in the employ of any gubernatorial candidate. (MBT Editor's note: However, Public Strategy Associates was paid about $18,800 by the Bentley campaign in 2009, according to Bentley's year-end financial report with the Secretary of State's office.)
In phone surveys by Baselice & Associates with 1,003 highly likely Republican primary runoff voters, the race for Governor of Alabama shows Dr. Bentley some 20 points ahead of Mr. Byrne with only 13 percent undecided. Bentley is at 53% percent, and Byrne at 33% percent.
“The results from our previous poll three weeks before the Primary were within a couple points for each candidate except Robert Bentley. He definitely picked up a large majority of support among the undecided voters at the time,” said Brent Buchanan, a partner in Public Strategy Associates.
“With Moore and James out of the race, this poll shows that voters are continuing that trend toward Bentley. Twenty points is a huge margin. Each candidate has a path to victory, but Bentley’s is much, much easier according to this poll,” he finished.
The spinning ends Tuesday, July 13 on Election Day with the one poll that counts.
Not so fast there, sly counselor
Not so, says eliminated Democratic contender for attorney general Michel Nicrosi, of an insinuation in The Jere Beasley Report that she favors frontrunner James Anderson over Giles Perkins in their July 13 runoff.
Beasley, a former lieutenant governor and now one of the state's more prominent plaintiff attorneys, refers in the political scuttlebutt section of his monthly newsletter to "talk around the Capitol ... that Michelle (sic) currently leans toward James’ (Anderson's) candidacy."
Nicrosi said she hasn't endorsed either remaining candidate and doesn't plan to.
Nicrosi, who once headed the criminal division in the U.S. Attorney's office for the Southern District of Alabama here, declined to say which candidate would get her vote July 13. A resident of the Eastern Shore, Nicrosi has been on a leave of absence from the Jones Walker law firm in Mobile while she campaigned for attorney general. She said she plans to rejoin the firm at the end of the month.
Beasley praised Anderson for nearly winning without a runoff against two strong candidates.
Beasley suggested that Perkins was a long shot who did the Democratic Party a disservice by forcing Anderson to expend resources in a pointless runoff race.
Without much money, Nicrosi nevertheless "ran a very good race" in finishing third, wrote Beasley.
"Her support in a runoff would be welcomed by either candidate and the talk around the Capitol is that
Michelle (actually Michel) currently leans toward James’
candidacy," continued Beasley.
Not only did she not lean toward Anderson, Nicrosi added, had she decided to publicly endorse either candidate, more than likely her support would've gone to Perkins.
Nappie Time
Lagniappe's 2010 Nappie Awards, celebrating eight years of Lagniappe, will be staged at The Courtyard Manor at 751 Dauphin St. (formerly Gus's), Wednesday, July 14 at 6:30 p.m. For more information contact Rob Holbert at
The Road Warrior
An honorary sheriff's deputy badge wasn't the only possession of Stephen Nodine's that may have encouraged the public to mistake the ex-Mobile County commissioner for a sworn law enforcement officer.
It was back in December, shortly before Christmas, when Nodine's world began to crash down upon him with the discovery by county garage workers of marijuana and prescription pills in his truck and their alerting of the police. His county-issued Ford F-150 was in the garage for servicing and tire repairs after a misadventure in New Orleans. Apparently, Nodine figured since the pick-up was already in the garage for a couple days the time was right to install a portable Sho-Me emergency strobe light kit for the dashboard. A work order for installation of the equipment at a cost of a couple of hundred dollars was issued along with the maintenance and tire repair.
Nodine will observe his 47th birthday tomorrow.
Finchers lighting fire for Byrne in Semmes
State Rep. Chad Fincher, R-Semmes, and his wife, Caresse, will host a meet and greet for GOP gubernatorial hopeful Bradley Byrne at their home in Semmes Saturday, July 10 from 6:30-8 p.m.
The event is intended to provide “undecideds” with an opportunity to learn more about Byrne’s candidacy and get answers to any unresolved questions, said Fincher. It is also intended to energize Byrne’s existing Semmes’ support to insure a good turnout in Tuesday’s runoff with Robert Bentley, Fincher’s colleague in the state House of Representatives.
While contributions to the Byrne campaign would be welcomed, they are not necessary to attend, Fincher said.
For more information, call 251-649-2372.
State Rep. Jim Barton, R-Mobile, arranged a get-together last week between Byrne and Bayou la Batre/Coden area seafood and shipbuilding figures, including Russell Steiner, Mike Rice, Mike Esfeller, Patrick Kraver, Jansen Graham and Greg Marshall, so the candidate could address their issues. According to Barton, the foremost concern of the south Mobile County coastal industry leaders was their “vehement opposition” to any moratorium on drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico.
New Hudson, Buffkin ads
Mobile City Councilwoman Connie Hudson and Sheriff's Department administrator Ralph Buffkin, have launched new TV commercials in their bids for the District 2 seat on the Mobile County Commission. Buffkin, 68, lost his first tryd for the seat in 2004 when ex-Commissioner Stephen Nodine won in a runoff. Here's his spot. Hudson, who won re-election to her third term on the City Council last August, began airing this spot Wednesday.
Other Republicans vying with Buffkin and Hudson for the vacancy created by Nodine's resignation are Semmes barbershop operator Carmen Tillman, retired Navy Commander Pete Riehm, School Commissioner Ken Megginson and tow truck company owner Tommy Gordon. The election will be held July 13.
Ants at the picnic?
The Bradley Byrne campaign launched a new TV spot attacking the Alabama Education Association's efforts to "hijack" the GOP runoff for governor. Byrne battles state Rep. Robert Bentley for the party's nomination on July 13. In the commercial, Byrne contends that AEA has spent almost $3 million to destroy his campaign, allowing Bentley to be the candidate of rectitude.
In for a penny, in for a pound
Mobile County District Attorney John Tyson Jr., the last non-judicial officeholder standing in Mobile County-wide politics for the Democratic Party, continues his tedious trek toward the GOP.
Tyson now has planted in his yard in Llanfair a Byrne for Governor sign. He has uprooted his Ashley Rich for DA sign, presumably per her instructions to supporters to shelve them until closer to Labor Day when her Republican campaign to follow Tyson in office resumes in earnest versus Democratic nominee Don Foster.
Despite his Democratic heritage and technical affiliation, Tyson has been in recent times, if partisan politically, more so in the direction of the GOP. Upon accepting Gov. Bob Riley's appointment as the state's special task force anti-bingo warrior, Tyson later opted not to seek re-election under either party's banner.
Instead Tyson backed his underling, Rich, in her successful primary battle with one-time local GOP chairman Mark Erwin.
The Byrne sign in Tyson's yard suggests the county's leading Democratic elected official has all but announced his switch to the Republican Party.
Should Criminal Appeals Judge Kelli Wise win election to the state Supreme Court in November, a likely occurence, Tyson will probably be among those on Riley's short list of possible appointees to fill the resulting opening on the criminal appeals court. Presumably, the outgoing GOP governor would insist that Tyson, 57, officially switch to the Republican Party. Regardless, the move would be sharply criticized in some GOP circles.
Election update
With authorities predicting a light turnout, local election officials reported July 1 that in Mobile County 958 absentee ballots had been processed for the State Runoff Election; 114 absentee ballots for the County Commission District 2 Special Election. The Primary Election on June 1, in Mobile County reflected applications for more than 1,800 absentee ballots.
"The general sense of participants at the election preparation meeting is that many of our citizens don’t realize there’s a primary runoff or a special county commission district 2 election," reported Mobile County Probate Judge Don Davis last week.
Despite a resident's marquee place on the ballot and at least three vigorously contested local races, Baldwin County, too, appears destined for a light turnout, according to officials.
Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell said just 556 absentee ballots had been sent out for the July 13 runoff, a figure he described as "very low."
"Sadly, interest does not seem strong now," the fledgling probate judge and former Foley mayor said. "It seems everyone is focused on the oil crisis."
Nevertheless, Russell does expect the Baldwin County turnout to exceed the state's average, even with "average ... at best" interest.
Patch Up or Punch Out?
Despite the summer season, a post-primary chat between GOP gubernatorial frontrunner Bradley Byrne and his would-be runoff foe Tim James turned frosty. James, who trailed putative second place finisher Robert Bentley by just a handful of votes, wanted to use the Birmingham law firm Bradley Arant in contesting the count. However, the firm had done some legal work for Byrne and ethically needed Byrne to waive any perceived conflict before contracting with James. According to sources familiar with the exchange, Byrne's waiver and, should the contest fail as ultimately it did and Bentley remain as Byrne's runoff opponent, James's endorsement of Byrne became conflated. The possibility of any brothers-in-arms accord expired quickly with James berating Byrne for injecting James' father, former Gov. Fob James, into his criticisms of the younger James' candidacy. While young James has remained mute on the Byrne/Bentley runoff, several of James' leading south Alabama supporters, including former Congressman Sonny Callahan, Mobile attorney Braxton Counts, Orange Beach attorney Greg Leatherbury and construction manager Tommy Tyrrell, are now riding with Bentley.
Money matters
A quick look at the financial disclosures of the GOP candidates in the July 13 special election to fill the vacant District 2 seat on the Mobile County Commission:
- Ralph Buffkin -- raised almost $62,000 in contributions; notable contributors included John Peavy, $1,000; Explore PAC, $6,000; Tom Purvis, $200; William E. Barnes, IV, $1,000; Bruce and Eva Creel, $1,000; Robbie Outlaw, $1,000; Harris Morrissette, $1,000; Lowell Friedman, $1,000; Gary Cooper, $1,000; Taylor Harper, $500; David Cooper, $500; Tommy Marr, $500; Charlie McNichol, $500; Sam and Sabrina Cochran, $500 and $100; Todd McCain, $500; Brenda and Richard Cashdollar, $500; John and Sharon Ellisor, $1,000; Joseph and Brenda Lomax, $1,000; South Alabamians for Good Government, $1,000; Norvelle Smith, $2,000; Chris Naman, $500; Ritchie and Ashley (Rich) Hurt, $100; Erik L. Johnsen, $100; Randy Billingsley, $1,000; Danny R. Price, dba Price Consulting, $500; and Lonnie Parsons, $500; expenditures totaling about $45,000 to MDI Media.
- Connie Hudson -- showed cash contributions of almost $34,000; notable contributions included Mobile Auto PAC, $500; Ben Brooks Senate Campaign, $250; Atlantic Marine, $500; Mobile Air Center, $200; Frank Lott III, $250; George and Linda Brown, $100; Rip Pfeiffer, $500; George Montgomery, $1,000; Michael Montgomery, $1,000; Ann Bedsole, $250; Lee Hale, Jr., $1,000; Faye Denton, $1,000; Rod and Kitty Cooke, $2,000; Michael and Virginia Boyd, $200; T.S. and S.L. Damson, $250; Leonard and Bess Rich, $1,000; Daniel Elcan, $250; Dominick Matranga, $500; Uriah Land Company, $500; David Cooper, Sr., $500; Roland McRae, $2,000; Energy South PAC, $250; Dyer Trucking Company, $500; Ralph and Kimberly Hargrove, $500; Cedar Point Fishing Pier, $500; Frank and Pamela Millsaps, $100; John and Frances Saint, $500; Fred Richardson, $100; Don and Peggy Kelly, $500; Paul Wesch, $500; Rossler Law Firm, $500; and A. Keans, $1,000.
- Pete Riehm -- raised nearly $22,000 in contributions for a first-time run at public office; notable contributions included Maureen Baldy, $1,000; Barry Booth, $2,000; Jean Stimpson, $1,000; Wayne and Maryella Sirmon, $300; Davis Pilot, Jr., $1,000; Debra Pilot, $1,000; David Cooper, Sr., $500; Joel B. Bullard, Jr., $200; Husain and Tracey Abdulla, $500; Thomas C. Weller, Jr., $1,000; Russell Ladd, III, $100; John Peebles, $500; W.H. Stimpson, $1,000; Hal Pierce, $1,000; Mobile Commercial Investment Real Estate Club, $1,000; Bestor Ward, $750; and Michael Druhan, $1,000.
Vets back Riehm
Speaking for the Veterans of Mobile County, John D. Bankston announced that the group has endorsed retired Naval Commander Pete Riehm for Mobile County Commission, District 2.
Riehm is one of six Republican candidates vying in the July 13 special election to claim the party's nomination. The seat became open when ex-Commissioner Stephen Nodine resigned amid impeachment proceedings against him.
According to Bankston's statement, Riehm's "management skills, organizational experience and knowledge to communicate on a higher plane than what is currently being exhibited will be exemplary. Pete’s highly disciplined demeanor will be a huge asset for Mobile County ... by eliminating frills and other unnecessary cost that has absolutely zero meaning to Mobile County. The people in District 2 and Mobile County will welcome Pete’s honesty and openness to the public with all concerning issues. Having worked closely with Pete on various Community projects we can say with actuality his method of accomplishing given tasks is above outstanding. The people of Mobile County will be pleased by voting him into Office."
GOP to sponsor forum for commission candidates
The Mobile County Republican Executive Committee Thursday, July 8 will sponsor a forum/debate involving candidates in the special election for Mobile County Commission District 2.
The program will be held at Westminster Presbyterian Church, Airport Blvd. at Sage Ave., beginning with a "meet and greet" the candidates at 6:30 p.m.
After a short business meeting, the debate/forum will commence at about 7:30 p.m. All GOP contenders have confirmed they will be attend and participate. The Special Guest Moderator will be Greg Peterson of NBC 15 News.
The public is welcome to attend free of charge.
Republicans vying for the vacancy include Sheriff's Office administrator Ralph Buffkin, towing company owner Tommy Gordon, Mobile City Councilwoman Connie Hudson, School Board member Ken Megginson, conservative political organizer Pete Riehm, Semmes barber Carmen Tillman.
The GOP special election primary will be July 13.
The previous District 2 Commissioner Stephen Nodine resigned instead of facing trial for impeachment.
U.S. Senate snapshot polling by Rasmussen
Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power projections show that Democrats can probably count on having at least 49 Senate seats after Election Day, while Republicans will hold a minimum of 41. In play, however, are 10 Toss-Up races that are likely to be the major storyline of Election 2010.
With two months of summer left before the fall campaign season begins in earnest, Rasmussen Reports polling shows that Republicans are poised to pick up Democratic-held Senate seats in four states — Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota. Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln is the only incumbent senator currently projected to lose a seat. The other three are open-seat races following retirements by Democratic incumbents.
At the moment, outside of the Toss-Up states, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column.
Six of the 10 Toss-up states are currently Democratic seats, while four are held by the GOP.
Among the six Democratic seats in the Toss-Up category, three are open seat races (Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania), and the Republicans have a slight edge in the most recent polling for each of those seats. As for Democratic incumbents in the Toss-Up category, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada finds himself trailing in the latest polling; Patty Murray of Washington is tied, and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin holds a very slight edge over a little-known opponent.
Richard Burr of North Carolina is the only Republican incumbent in the Toss-Up category. He has led the race for most of the year but now finds himself tied with the winner of a Democratic primary runoff. Other Republican seats in play at the moment are in Florida, Missouri and Ohio. In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is tied with former Republican Charlie Crist. The GOP candidates have slight leads in Missouri and Ohio.
Put it all together, and Republicans are slightly ahead in six of the 10 Toss-up states. Three of the races are tied, and the Democratic candidate has the lead in one. This suggests that if the election were held today, the GOP would be favored to pick up a few more than the four seats already moving in their direction. However, it is impossible to know how these races will look in November. While individual candidate performance will obviously play a role, the overall political tide may be an even bigger factor.
